So, I was perusing our opponents blog Double-T-Nation at work today, and I noticed they were comparing their current Per Game rankings against last years. They stole it from someone else, so I don’t feel to bad doing the same thing (they do have a nice site, even if they do cheer for a team that seems to have sold its soul to the devil for the express purpose of rewriting the NCAA record book)
They were only doing 8 week rankings, but I think 8 weeks is plenty in terms of a sample size, so I will compare per game averages for this years team versus last years team. A nifty spreadsheet always helps:


Offensive Rankings (In Per Game Averages)

2006 – Rank 2007 – Rank

Passing 123.6 – #116 247.1 – #45

Rushing 172-8 – #22 133.1 – #83

Total 310.8 – #99 391.9 – #69

Points 16.3 – #107 24.6 – #79

Defensive Rankings (In Per Game Averages)

2006 – Rank 2007- Rank

Passing 228.50 – #94 204 – #34

Rushing 112.4 – #30 129.50 – #35

Total 340.92 – #66 330.5 – #35

Points 22.3 – #56 23.75 – #48


As you can see, our team, if anything, is really where it should be in terms of wins and losses. With a decidedly below average Offense, and an above average Defense, the difference in points Scored and Points lost is less than 1 (ONE) full point. Despite being the obvious strength of this team, the Defense this year is actually worse in points scored then our Defense last year, which I find annoying as we returned most starters, are better in Total Yards, and have an Offense that is light years better (even if it still sucks more or less). My feeble attempt at an explanation comes from the schedule we have played and the fact that even if we could not score at all last year, at least the Buffs could run. This year our running game has really suffered, and the #83 ranking really shows it. Combine that with a much higher turnover rate, and points can really pile up.
The biggest differences from last year are most obvious on the Offensive side of the ball. Specifically, passing. CU is putting up over 120 yards more per game in the air. While the rushing stats have significantly decreased, those 120 yards are really showing up in the points scored category with CU putting up about 9 points more per game.
As the years go on and Hawk gets his system fully in place, I think you will see both last years rushing and this years passing numbers completely eclipsed, probably in the same year. Boise St. has a very balanced Offense, and Hawk is definitely the kind of Hippy dude that loves to see balance in everything. Last year, especially, will be seen as a significant outlier (we all dearly hope so anyways).
Anyways, what a difference a year makes! I may seem a bit down on the team after looking at these stats, but remember, CU has a #18 Strength of Schedule Ranking, having played 2 undefeated teams, and having giving another top 10 team their only loss.
I expect to see an increased emphasis on the running game as this year wears on and Big Hawk tries to really get that Offensive line going against Defenses that have taken a big pounding in the conference games. Go Buffs!

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